High Mountain Asia, spanning the Himalayas, Hindu Kush and major river systems like the Yellow and Indus, supplies water to about two billion people. The rivers, fed by glaciers, snow and rain, are changing under climate-driven shifts in temperature, monsoons and droughts. Previous research suggests regional glaciers could lose 29% to 67% of their mass by 2100.
This study is the first to assess the entire range's river network, breaking flows into 8-kilometer segments. Researchers found discharge rose an average 8% per year in affected rivers between 2004 and 2019. Larger rivers with flows above 1,000 cubic meters per second, such as the Yangtze, averaged more than 2% growth annually, adding about 5,300 gallons each second in some stretches.
"Increased river discharge offers short term benefits such as more water for hydropower and agriculture, but it also signals sediment increase and glacier loss," said lead author Jonathan Flores. Continued glacier retreat could eventually reduce meltwater supply, threatening long-term availability.
Greater discharge also boosts stream power, transporting more sand, silt and gravel. This sediment can impair turbines, reduce dam storage and disrupt aquatic habitats. Western rivers, primarily glacier-fed, showed the strongest increases, while eastern, rain-fed rivers changed less.
Using over one million Landsat and PlanetScope images, supplemented by river gauge data, the team produced an open-source dataset. This resource could inform new dam designs, adjusting for increased flows and sediment. Of 1,600 dams or planned sites examined, 8% experienced higher stream power.
Flores noted that during field visits in Nepal, communities reliant on hydropower highlighted the importance of resilient water systems. The findings could guide regional planning to optimize infrastructure and manage future water challenges.
Research Report:Accelerating River Discharge in High Mountain Asia
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