Dr. Nafeez Ahmed, the study's author and Distinguished Fellow at the Schumacher Institute for Sustainable Systems, explained, "Industrial civilisation is facing 'inevitable' decline as it is replaced by what could turn out to be a far more advanced 'postmaterialist' civilisation based on distributed superabundant clean energy. The main challenge is that industrial civilisation is facing such rapid decline that this could derail the emergence of a new and superior 'life-cycle' for the human species."
The paper synthesizes extensive interdisciplinary research, proposing that civilizations evolve through four key phases: growth, stability, decline, and transformation. It identifies modern industrial civilization as entering its decline phase, but notes this stage also heralds the potential for transformation into a postindustrial era. Ahmed's work highlights an emerging material-technological system based on clean energy, artificial intelligence, and decentralized technologies, marking the dawn of a new global paradigm.
One key issue raised is the diminishing Energy Return On Investment (EROI) for fossil fuels, such as oil, gas, and coal, which has accelerated industrial decline. Ahmed emphasizes that transitioning to clean energy, where EROI is rapidly improving, is essential to avert collapse. However, resistance to this transition, driven by authoritarian regimes and far-right political agendas, poses a significant threat to civilization's ability to evolve.
Technological innovations such as clean energy, cellular agriculture, AI, 3D printing, and electric vehicles are identified as critical drivers of a potential "networked superabundance" system. According to the study, these advancements have the power to deliver unparalleled prosperity while protecting Earth's ecosystems. However, their inherently decentralized nature challenges industrial-era centralized governance systems, creating political and cultural disruptions. Rising authoritarianism, Ahmed warns, could prevent the world from successfully transitioning to this new era.
"An amazing new possibility space is emerging, where humanity could provide itself superabundant energy, transport, food and knowledge without hurting the earth," said Ahmed. "This could be the next giant leap in human evolution. But if we fail to genuinely evolve as humans by rewiring how we govern these emerging capabilities responsibly and for the benefit of all, they could be our undoing. Instead of evolving, we would regress - if not collapse. The rise in authoritarian and far-right governments around the world increases this grave risk of collapse. The incoming Donald Trump administration, with its commitment to elevating fossil fuels while gutting clean energy - as well as its focus on centralising power along ethnonationalist lines - could prevent us successfully moving through the planetary phase shift to the next stage of human evolution."
Ahmed, a leading systems theorist, presented his findings at the UN Summit of the Future earlier this year, where he addressed global policymakers at an event sponsored by the Governments of Panama and Antigua and Barbuda.
Research Report:"Planetary phase shift" as a new systems framework to navigate the evolutionary transformation of human civilisation
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